Forecasts from five major banks, summer hiring boom expected

The Canadian employment sector is likely to bounce back in June after a massive blow suffered in the months of April and May. Here you can find the forecasts of economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

As FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta notes, USD/CAD has room to rise towards 1.2650 but strong jobs data could spoil the party.

RBC Economics

“We expect Canadian employment to have bounced back in June, posting a 200K gain in jobs as virus containment measures eased. That would retrace much of the 275K drop over April and May. The June rebound will be led by recovery in those industries hardest-hit by the spring wave of lockdowns – accommodation & food services and retail. Early data flagged a surge in job openings by mid-June, and our own tracking of consumer spending also looks significantly stronger. Manufacturing employment is expected to regain part of May’s decline with indications that supply chain disruptions, particularly in the motor vehicle sector, eased somewhat in the month. That would still leave the total economy-wide job count at about 2% (or 370K) short of pre-pandemic levels, and the unemployment rate elevated at 7.6%. But the summer outlook continues to brighten as vaccination rates, particularly for second doses, ramp up significantly.”


“We look for the labour market to bounce back with job growth of 175K in June, recouping a significant port of the 275K jobs lost to COVID-19 lockdowns over April and May. Services should lead the recovery on a rebound across industries that were hardest hit by COVID-19 measures, including retail trade and accommodation/food services. Ontario resumed nonessential retail activity and patio dining on June 7th, ahead of the reference week, which will provide a major catalyst alongside the rollback of emergency measures across other regions. Job growth of 175K will leave total employment ~400K below pre-COVID levels and the unemployment rate testing the March lows of 7.5%. Hours worked should also see a large increase, even if they are held down by a larger share of part-time workers among those hired in June.”

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“Our call is for 40K increase in employment, a gain that would allow the unemployment rate to decline one tick to 8.1%, assuming the participation rate rose from 64.6% to 64.7%.”


“Rehiring ramped up relatively quickly during each of the first two reopenings that followed shutdowns of the Canadian economy. So there’s every reason to believe employment made a sharp U-turn in June, after shedding 275K jobs during the third wave in April and May.  We expect the Candadian economy to have added 80K jobs. The unemployment rate might not fall much, our forecast is 8.1% compared to 8.2% last month, but that’s only because labour force participation is expected to bounce back from the lows plumbed in the prior month. Look for Covid-sensitive sectors like retailing, accommodation and food services to be the big winners as they were the hardest hit by the restrictions.”


“Net Change in Employment June – Citi: 270K, median: 40K, prior: -68K; Unemployment Rate – Citi: 7.4%, median: 8.1%, prior: 8.2%. We expect a strong increase in Canadian employment though the path of manufacturing employment remains a key uncertainty. Our projections have the BoC’s ~770K job growth goal (before it considers raising rates) met by Q2-2022.”


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